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April 2026 outlook: conflict and economic uncertainty
Conflict reignited in the Middle East in late February 2026. After the initial escalation, Brent crude rose to US$112 per barrel by late March, about 60 percent above pre-conflict levels, while European natural gas prices increased by nearly 70 percent. Higher energy prices raise costs across food systems, particularly for fertilizer, transport, imports, and public service delivery, while reducing household purchasing power. The effects fall hardest on energy-importing low-income countries, especially those already affected by conflict, fiscal stress, or weak domestic markets.
The regional economic effects are visible in the World Bank Group’s April 2026 Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (MENAAP) Economic Update. Growth in the region, excluding Iran, is now projected at 1.8 percent in 2026, down from 4.2 percent in January. Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar are projected to contract. In conflict-affected countries, per capita incomes remain far below where they would have been without prolonged instability. The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) April 2026 World Economic Outlook further notes that Sub-Saharan African economies are especially exposed via heavy food and fertilizer import dependence, and that weather concerns in major agriculture producing regions — including Brazil and West Africa — continue to feed into global food-price expectations.
The April 2026 World Food Security Outlook projections are anchored in the IMF’s April 2026 Outlook, which reflects the initial effects of the conflict. The IMF characterizes growth risks as tilted to the downside and inflation risks to the upside, with energy prices remaining a key source of uncertainty. The default reference scenario assumes a relatively short-lived conflict and gradual normalization of energy markets. The downside case assumes a more prolonged disruption, including further attacks on critical energy infrastructure and a longer closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The April 2026 outlook estimates that 927 million people were severely food insecure in 2023. The preliminary estimate for 2025 is 993 million.
Under the current reference projection, severe food insecurity will exceed one billion in 2028 and reach 1,050 million by 2030.
Under the downside case of a prolonged conflict that leads to slower growth and higher inflation, the threshold is crossed two years earlier, in 2026. The global prevalence rate remains near 12 percent and is edging upward. With continued population growth, more people will face elevated risk each year, including more children born into severe food insecurity, with consequences that can last a lifetime and extend across generations.
Alongside the broad headcount based on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale, the Outlook maps its projections onto the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), the framework used by the UN system to monitor food crises and famine risk. IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) refers to areas where at least 20 percent of households face food consumption gaps, high or above-usual acute malnutrition, or can meet minimum food needs only by depleting essential livelihood assets. IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) reflects large food consumption gaps, very high acute malnutrition, excess mortality, or emergency livelihood strategies and asset liquidation. The Outlook projects that by 2030, approximately 467 million people will live in IPC Phase 3 or above areas, including 71 million in IPC Phase 4 or above areas. This is more than double the pre-pandemic level.
How the shock changes the long-term outlook
To understand how recent events are reshaping the long-term outlook, we compare the default 2030 projections in the April 2026 and October 2025 editions of the Outlook. The April 2026 projection is 46 million people higher at the global level, with the setback concentrated in the poorest economies. In low-income economies, the severely food-insecure population is revised upward by 76 million.
The burden shifts most strongly toward Sub-Saharan Africa, where the projection is revised upward by 81 million.
Under the April 2026 default projection, Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for roughly 400 million severely food-insecure people in 2030, or about 38 percent of the global total, followed by South Asia and the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan region. Across income groups, about 82 percent of the global severely food-insecure population is projected to live in low-income and lower-middle-income economies.
The revision reflects both an expansion of food insecurity and an intensification of existing crises. Among countries projected to have IPC Phase 3+ prevalence above 5 percent in 2030, the crisis-affected population is revised upward by 13 million. The increase is largest in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan region, at 7 million people, followed by Sub-Saharan Africa, at 5 million.
The magnitude of the global revision is broadly consistent with the World Food Programme’s estimate that the Middle East escalation could add roughly 45 million people to global food insecurity. The two approaches arrive at similar results through different channels. The Outlook reflects the weaker growth and higher inflation assumptions incorporated into the IMF outlook following the rise in energy prices, while the World Food Programme estimates the effects of higher oil prices directly based on countries’ dependence on food and fuel imports. The ultimate impact on global food systems will depend on the duration and scale of the conflict, and on how quickly energy production and transport recover after hostilities end.
Figure notes
Figure 1 details. Global severely food-insecure population, 1999–2031 (millions). The solid black line shows historical estimates, combining observed Food Insecurity Experience Scale data (2015–2023) with model estimates (1999–2025). Estimates for 2024 and 2025 remain preliminary as newer data are incorporated. Dotted lines show the April 2026 projections under a default scenario (navy), which assumes a short-lived conflict, and a downside scenario (red), which assumes further attacks on critical energy infrastructure and a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Under the default scenario, the severely food-insecure population exceeds one billion in 2028; under the downside scenario, the threshold is crossed in 2026 (diamonds). Country-level figures are summed; the population denominator uses the World Bank Group’s total population data through 2025 and IMF World Economic Outlook population projections thereafter.
Figure 2 details. The World Food Security Outlook April 2026 at a glance. Panel A shows the severely food-insecure population by World Bank Group country income classification. Panel B shows the global prevalence rate. Panel C shows response needs under default, downside, and positive scenarios. The default and downside scenarios correspond to the short-lived and prolonged conflict scenarios considered in the IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook. The positive scenario combines the short-lived conflict scenario with falling (modeled) global food prices. Panel D shows the 2026 regional share of the severely food-insecure population using World Bank Group regional groupings. Panel E shows the IPC severity ladder used for Early Response Financing eligibility: IDA Crisis Response Window Early Response Financing eligibility is triggered when 20 percent or more of the population lives in areas classified as IPC Phase 3 or above. All series are annual. World totals are constructed from country-level estimates and rescaled to match the World Bank Group’s global population total.
Figure 3 details. April 2026 vs October 2025 default-scenario projection in 2030. Top row: severely food-insecure population, all matched countries, by region (panel A) and income group (panel B). Bottom row: IPC Phase 3+ Crisis-equivalent population, restricted to the April 2026 crisis group (countries with IPC3+ prevalence above 5 percent in 2030 default, n=34), by region (panel C) and income group (panel D). For comparability, severe food insecurity totals are anchored to the same 2023 global population total from the World Bank Group’s World Development Indicators in both vintages, and the IPC Phase 3+ crisis group is indexed to a common 2023 base year to isolate re-estimation differences from changes in Famine Early Warning Systems Network data.
read more: https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/global-hunger-nears-one-billion
