CONAKRY, October 7, 20265 – The third edition of the Guinea Economic Update entitled Beyond Mining: Turning Natural Resource Wealth into Private Sector Growth and Jobs highlights that Guinea’s economy grew by 7.4% in 2025, driven by a strong expansion in the mining sector, including bauxite production, as well as the recovery of services and the growth of agriculture. At the same time, inflation declined to 3.2%, contributing to an improvement in household purchasing power and an estimated decline in the national poverty rate to 36.8 percent in 2025 according to estimates.
- Buoyed by mining investments and the gradual commissioning of SIMANDOU production, Guinea has a historic opportunity to accelerate its economic transformation. To maximize the benefits, additional reforms will be needed to strengthen the private sector, boost employment, and diversify the economy,Marilyne Youbi,World Bank Group Economist and lead author of the report
The medium-term outlook is particularly favorable. With the start of iron ore exports from Simandou, growth is expected to reach 8.8% in 2026, 11.6% in 2027, and 10.7% in 2028, placing Guinea among the fastest growing economies in the world. However, the report highlights that mining-led growth will not automatically translate into broad-based welfare improvements, in a context where formal wage employment remains limited and a large share of the population works in low-productivity activities.
The report also notes that fiscal performance remains under pressure despite progress in revenue mobilization. In 2025, total revenues rose to 18.2% of GDP, their highest level in over two decades, while public expenditure rose sharply through investments and election spending. The fiscal deficit stood at 8.9% of GDP.
Beyond macroeconomic performance, emphasis is placed on the need to strengthen the non-mining private sector, improve access to finance for small and medium enterprises, develop the skills of the workforce and foster closer links between mining and the rest of the economy through an effective local content policy.
Agriculture is central to this strategy. Accounting for about 31% of GDP and over 60% of employment, it offers significant potential for job creation, poverty reduction, and economic diversification. Recommendations include investing in post-harvest infrastructure and logistics, strengthening agriculture and agribusiness value chains, and leveraging the Simandou corridor to improve producers’ access to domestic and international markets.
“Beyond the magnitude of the investments under the Simandou megaproject, the measure of Guinea’s success will be whether the country is able to use this opportunity to strengthen its institutions, develop its infrastructure and invest in its human capital,” said Issa Mare Diaw, World Bank Group Resident Representative for Guinea.
The report calls for accelerating reforms to strengthen private sector competitiveness, improve public financial management, develop agricultural value chains, increase investment in skills and human capital, and ensure that the benefits of growth reach all citizens.
Download the Guinea Economic Update 2026.
