- Guyana’s economy continues to grow rapidly, driven by strong oil and non-oil activity, with the outlook remaining highly favorable.
- Prudent macroeconomic policies, rising oil revenues, growing buffers, and strong public and private investment underpin stability and continued growth.
- Policies should continue to preserve macroeconomic and financial stability, strengthen policy frameworks, and support diversification and durable inclusive growth.
Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV Consultation with Guyana.[1]
Guyana’s economy continues to expand at one of the highest rates in the world, supported by strong oil production and robust, broad-based non-oil activity. Real GDP grew by over 19 percent in 2025, with oil and non-oil GDP increasing by 21 percent and 14 percent, respectively, as oil production exceeded 900,000 barrels per day, labor market conditions strengthened further, and private credit supported economic activity. These trends broadly continued in the first half of 2026. Average inflation remained contained at 3.3 percent in 2025 but edged up in 2026, reflecting higher global energy and food prices. The external position strengthened further, with the current account surplus widening, gross international reserves reaching about US$1.4 billion, and the Natural Resource Fund (NRF) accumulating about US$3.3 billion (over 12 percent of GDP) by end-2025.
Strong oil revenues helped narrow the overall fiscal deficit to 5.5 percent of GDP in 2025 while large public investments continued. The non-oil primary deficit as a share of non-oil GDP also declined slightly. The accumulation of oil revenue in the NRF has helped build external and fiscal buffers, and investments in physical and human capital have supported non-oil growth and social outcomes. Monetary operations have helped contain liquidity and exchange rate pressures, while fiscal and supply-side measures have cushioned near-term price pressures. Economic fundamentals remain strong, while wage and competitiveness indicators warrant continued monitoring.
Executive Board Assessment[2]
Prudent macroeconomic policies continue to support Guyana’s strong growth. The authorities’ development strategy appropriately emphasizes diversification, resilience, and sustainability, while building buffers through continued rapid NRF accumulation and maintaining one of the lowest debt-to-GDP ratios in the Western Hemisphere. Large public investments in physical and human capital are supporting non-oil growth and social outcomes. Monetary operations have helped contain liquidity and exchange rate pressures, while fiscal and supply-side measures have cushioned near-term price pressures. Against this background, available indicators do not point to clear overheating or competitiveness pressures, though strong wage growth and wage-based real exchange rate measures warrant close monitoring.
Guyana’s economy continues to expand at a very rapid pace, supported by robust oil and non-oil activity. Real GDP grew by over 19 percent in 2025, following average growth of nearly 40 percent during 2023–24. Oil production exceeded expectations, while broad-based non-oil growth remained robust, led by construction and supported by agriculture, mining, and manufacturing. Labor market conditions improved, and credit growth remained strong. Inflation remained contained in 2025 but picked up by mid-2026, reflecting higher global energy and food prices. The overall fiscal deficit narrowed by nearly two percentage points to 5.5 percent of GDP in 2025, reflecting strong oil revenue while large public investment continued. Rising oil production and a decline in oil-related service imports strengthened the external position, which is assessed to be broadly in line with the level implied by fundamentals and desirable policies in 2025.
read more: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/10/08/pr26330-guyana-article-iv
