- The Cameroonian economy has been resilient to shocks, but growth slowed in 2025 as election-related disruptions affected economic activity in October and November.
- Preliminary indications are that fiscal position weakened in 2025, with underperforming non-oil revenues and a slippage in current spending.
- The outlook is cautiously favorable with growth expected to recover in 2026 and the fiscal stance expected to tighten. Downside risks could weigh on the outlook, notably tight financial conditions, reduced aid flows, volatile commodity prices, and security and climate related challenges.
Washington, DC: On March 25, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation for Cameroon.[1] The authorities have consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation (footnote: select option 1).[2]
Cameroon’s economy has shown notable resilience to external economic shocks in recent years. The economy is estimated to have grown by 3.1 percent in 2025, a slower pace than previously forecast as election-related disruptions affected trade, services, and investment. Inflation declined to 3.4 percent, on average, through December 2025, driven by moderating food and transport prices. Preliminary estimates suggest the fiscal position weakened in 2025, with a non-oil primary deficit of 2.6 percent of GDP, exceeding the budget target of 1.4 percent of GDP. The deterioration was driven by the underperformance on non-oil revenues and slippages in current expenditures. Cameroon’s current account deficit is expected to have widened to 3.9 percent of GDP in 2025 (from 3.3 percent in 2024), partly reflecting lower oil export receipts.
The outlook is cautiously favorable, with risks stemming from Cameroon’s dependence on price-volatile commodity exports, fiscal policy challenges, and policy uncertainties in the CEMAC region. Growth is projected to recover to 3.3 percent in 2026, reflecting higher public investment, with inflation expected to decline to 2.9 percent. The current account deficit is forecast to widen to 5.3 percent of GDP in 2026 on the back of lower cocoa prices. Over the medium term, as mining diversification materializes, growth is projected to reach 4.6 percent and current account deficit to curb to 4.0 percent of GDP. However, tight liquidity conditions and higher global interest rates could heighten financing risks at a time when large amortizations are coming due. Reduced aid may increase budget pressures. The growth outlook is weighed down by continued security and climate related challenges. Further weakening of CEMAC’s international reserves could heighten uncertainty and require additional policy adjustments. The effects of the recent rise in oil prices, driven by the conflict in the Middle East, are expected to be contained in the near term. The gains in oil-related revenues are expected to be partly offset by subsidies under the administered price regime, underscoring the need to adopt an automatic fuel price setting mechanism along with targeted assistance for the most vulnerable to ease fiscal risks. Likewise, the improvement in the current account is expected to be partially counterbalanced by declining cocoa prices, given Cameroon’s significant non-oil export base.
Executive Board Assessment[3]
Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They welcomed Cameroon’s economic resilience and noted the broadly favorable medium-term outlook, buoyed by mining and electricity investments. Noting recent fiscal slippages and rising domestic and external uncertainties, Directors called for intensified efforts to entrench macroeconomic stability and accelerate much-needed structural reforms to support private sector-led growth. Such efforts, which would help consolidate earlier gains from previous Fund engagements, would be supported by sustained, well-sequenced, and targeted capacity development and close coordination with regional entities.
Directors emphasized the importance of sustained fiscal consolidation for easing risks to debt sustainability and helping to bolster regional macro stability. They called for continued efforts to strengthen revenue mobilization and for enhanced efforts towards expenditure controls, spending efficiency, and public investment management to create space for infrastructure and social spending. Completing fuel subsidy reforms is also important.
Directors emphasized the need to strengthen debt management, given the high risk of debt distress. Noting liquidity constraints, they generally emphasized prioritizing concessional project financing from development partners over expensive commercial borrowing, and urged the authorities to embed an arrears clearance plan within a credible medium-term financing strategy. Directors also stressed that comprehensive SOE reforms and fiscal transparency will be essential to enhance fiscal resilience.
Directors underscored the need for continued vigilance in the financial sector amid elevated NPLs and the sovereign-bank nexus. They called for caution given the expanding state footprint in the banking sector and encouraged strengthening the governance of state‑owned banks. Accelerating AML/CFT reforms is paramount for Cameroon to exit the FATF grey list. Continued efforts to promote financial sector development and financial inclusion remain important for supporting higher growth.
Directors underscored the need for a more decisive and sustained implementation of structural reforms to secure durable private‑sector‑led growth. They highlighted the importance of strengthening governance and transparency, addressing regulatory bottlenecks, and continuing with reforms to strengthen climate resilience.
Directors looked forward to close engagement between the authorities and the Fund under the Post-Financing Assessment framework.
The next Article IV consultation with Cameroon is expected to be held on the standard 12-month cycle.
read more: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/03/30/pr-26096-cameroon-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation
